Trade builds foundation, China-EU deepening cooperation has a bright future
After the trade volume in goods between the two sides hit a record high of US$828.1 billion last year, the trade volume between China and the EU in the first quarter of this year once again recorded a good harvest of 1.31 trillion yuan, an increase of 10.2% year-on-year, and ranked second in China behind ASEAN by a small gap. big trading partner. China and the EU have naturally become important trade partners for each other, and the trade imagination space displayed by this is worth looking forward to.
Let’s extend the time interface. In 2000, the total value of China-EU trade in goods was only 94.9 billion US dollars, and the average monthly trade volume was 7.9 billion US dollars. In contrast, in the first two months of this year, the daily trade volume of goods between the two sides reached more than 2.3 billion. U.S. dollar; more importantly, such a huge trade volume was formed under the influence of two important factors, the new crown pneumonia epidemic and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. The vitality and resilience of the trade between the two sides are obvious; more importantly, in addition to the significant increase in volume. The quality improvement of China-EU trade is also particularly clear. The growth rate of aerospace, biology, optoelectronics, electronics, materials and other fields in bilateral trade has exceeded 30%. At the same time, China and the EU have expanded from the field of trade in goods to the field of service trade, and the breadth and depth of cooperation in financial market interconnection, digital economy and other aspects have been unprecedentedly expanded, thus strengthening the stability of the industrial chain and supply chain in the process of economic and trade exchanges. Sex and flexibility.
In the EU phalanx composed of 27 member states, Germany is undoubtedly the core member in an absolutely dominant position. The main reason is not only that Germany is the most powerful economy in the European economic plate, but also that Germany can directly control the European trade territory. , To put it bluntly, almost all EU member states regard Germany as the most important export market in the EU, but it is completely different from this internal circular trade mode, and Germany shows a very distinct external circular trade model. , its top two export markets are the United States and China; from the perspective of trade structure, Germany imports mostly industrial raw materials and intermediate products from other EU countries, and exports mainly industrial finished products, which means that other EU countries come from other EU countries. The country's products are reprocessed in Germany, some are returned to EU countries, and the other is exported to other markets such as China. It can be seen that in the EU's overall trade cycle ecology, Germany plays the role of an integrator of industrial resources within the region and is the center of the EU's industrial chain. It is worth noting that China is Germany's largest trading partner, with bilateral trade accounting for 1/3 of China-EU trade. At the same time, Germany is the country with the largest EU direct investment in China, with a cumulative investment stock of nearly 17 billion US dollars in China. And the investment growth in the first two months of this year has exceeded 109%. Obviously, Sino-German trade is the "ballast stone" of Sino-European trade, and the continuous prosperity of Sino-German trade has also driven the long-term stability of Sino-European trade.
Of course, in the kinetic energy that creates the strong pattern of Sino-European trade, although Germany plays a leading role, there are more forces to carry out multi-channel response and recommendation, the most important of which is the so-called "steel camel" in Central Europe train. The data shows that since its operation, the China-Europe freight train has operated more than 50,000 trains so far. The three major corridors consisting of the west line, the middle line and the east line radiate to 180 cities in 23 European countries, and transport a total of more than 4.55 million TEUs of goods. , the total value of the goods is 240 billion US dollars. At the same time, the entire transportation time of the China-Europe freight train has been shortened from 24 days at the beginning of the trip to the shortest 12 days. The comprehensive heavy container rate has increased from 77.2% at the beginning to the current 98.1%, and the operating efficiency has been continuously improved; more importantly The point is, the China-Europe Railway Express not only plays the role of a transportation and trade channel, but also becomes an important traction for the innovation of platforms, industries, cities and other elements. A total of 78 operating lines are like important links to drive cross-border e-commerce in the cities they pass through. With the rise and aggregation of logistics support, production and processing, and commercial circulation, industrial cooperation support has been opened up. As a result, China-Europe freight trains not only connect an international, comprehensive and three-dimensional supply chain, but also construct a global , resonant and open industrial chain.
The one-year anniversary of the implementation of the China-EU Geographical Indication Agreement has undoubtedly added a new hormone to the excitement of China-EU trade. Geographical indications are signs that identify the origin of a product in a certain region, and are also an important type of intellectual property. According to the "China-EU Geographical Indication Agreement", China and the EU have mutually recognized more than 500 geographical indications, and completed the protection procedures in two batches within four years. . According to the product orientation of Central and European GIs, agricultural products account for most of the content. As a result, the trade volume of agricultural products between the two sides has exceeded 30 billion US dollars in the past year, with a year-on-year growth rate of more than 16%. Among the EU GI products, European food and beverages are the most important. China's exports exceeded 20 billion US dollars, showing that the EU is actually the biggest beneficiary of the "China-EU Geographical Indication Agreement". At present, China is the second largest export destination of EU geographical indication products, and the EU is the core export market of China's geographical products. The two sides will further effectively increase the bilateral trade volume with the help of the geographical indication agreement.
The all-round, hierarchical and multi-channel dialogue and communication mechanism and business platform have given full play to the effect of "lubricant" and "stepping stone" of Sino-European trade. From the China-EU Economic and Trade Joint Committee at the early ministerial level, to the China-EU high-level economic and trade dialogue at the vice-premier level; from the China-EU leaders' meeting to the tripartite summit of leaders of China, the EU and Germany, and then to the cooperation between China and Central and Eastern European countries; from the central From the government level to the local cooperation level; from the official to the enterprise; various diversified and hierarchical policy dialogue and communication mechanisms cover all aspects of China-EU trade, up and down, not only providing relatively stable rules for bilateral trade cooperation and mechanism foundation, it has also made trade frictions such as the Sino-European photovoltaic product dispute and the EU's "anti-dumping" against Chinese textiles quickly eased and eliminated, and the two sides have also strengthened mutual trust and further cooperation through face-to-face communication. Therefore, whether it is the China International Import Expo or the China-Central and Eastern European Countries Expo, EU companies are one of the most active exhibitors, and the number of exhibitors, exhibition area and intended turnover have continuously reached new highs.
Everything in the past is a prologue. As the interests of the two sides are getting closer and closer, there is of course a wider space for trade between China and the EU that can be expanded. Taking cross-border transportation cooperation as an example, the China-Europe freight train can completely break through the platform identity of the carrier of goods trade, and expand in diversified directions such as "people-to-people train" and "tourism train", thereby stimulating the transformation and upgrading of bilateral trade, and At the same time, China Europe can further improve the cross-border operation efficiency of trains by means of digitalization and streamlining of cross-border procedures. Similarly, it is also possible to further expand the opening of the shipping industry to Europe, improve service efficiency and reduce freight costs.
The service industry is the most anticipated lineup in the China-EU trade cooperation pattern, especially the two major areas of green economy and digital economy have the greatest potential for cooperation. The EU's commitment to halving carbon emissions by 2050 and becoming the world's first "climate-neutral" continent is much more evident than China's goal of achieving "carbon peaking" by 2030 and "carbon neutrality" by 2060. Radical, the two sides can be said to be highly compatible in the concept of green development, and there is an objective possibility of complementary advantages. Taking new energy vehicles as an example, although the EU has a relatively advanced terminal manufacturing capacity, there is an obvious weakness in the supply of innovative power batteries for the core components of electric vehicles. However, through cooperation, the EU can fully utilize China's very complete power. The battery industry chain and collaborative supporting capabilities can make up for their own shortcomings; similarly, both China and Europe have established their own carbon markets, and the EU also has more mature carbon market management experience, which is worth introducing and learning from China. To achieve mutual recognition and mutual recognition in carbon trading volume.
Parallel to the cooperation at the green trade level, China and the EU can also make great efforts in the field of digital economy. Based on the objective reality that China and the EU have clearly established a bilateral digital partnership, in addition to cooperating on technical rules and product standards such as 5G, artificial intelligence, big data, Internet of Things, etc., the two sides can also cooperate on physical links such as industrial digitization and digital industrialization. Deep penetration. According to the forecast of the International Data Corporation, China's total data volume is expected to increase to 48.6ZB by 2025, accounting for 27.8% of the world's total. The experience is in line with the Chinese government's policy demands to solve data security, improve market supervision, and reduce the digital economy gap. The cooperation between the two parties can completely achieve complementary market effects.
From a dynamic review, the China-EU Comprehensive Investment Agreement (CAI) is undoubtedly a key factor in the deepening of bilateral trade relations in the future. After 7 years and 35 rounds of negotiation, China and the EU have completed the CAI negotiation in the special year of the 45th anniversary of the establishment of bilateral diplomatic relations, but due to the disturbance of various factors, it has not yet been substantively started. According to the agreement, China not only agrees to open up the manufacturing industry, but also greatly reduces the opening threshold for EU enterprises in telecommunications, finance, health care and other industries. At the same time, Chinese enterprises can enter the EU renewable energy field on a larger scale. On the basis of the current US$270 billion, we will continue to increase the volume, and the field of service trade will be greatly expanded, which will drive the overall transformation and upgrading of bilateral trade. In the future, the door to trade liberalization and facilitation between China and the EU will suddenly be opened!
(Author: Zhang Rui, Director of China Marketing Society, Professor of Economics at Guangdong University of Foreign Studies)